方恩格快评》贺锦丽演讲 台湾要注意
美国副总统贺锦丽（Kamala Harris）。(图/美联社)
8月24日，美国副总统贺锦丽在新加坡就拜登政府在东南亚、印太地区和全球的政策发表公开演讲。对于贺锦丽副总统来说，尴尬的是，她演讲的第一部分专门讨论了阿富汗正在发生的事件，这些事件现在既是拜登政府的国内政治危机，而且如果各国怀疑美国的安全承诺，就有可能成为外交政策危机。
贺锦丽感谢包括新加坡在内的美国伙伴最近在阿富汗问题上提供的援助。这说明，即使是新加坡这样的小国，也能提供这样的援助。台湾也应该考虑这样做。例如，笔者之前提出，在阿富汗难民移居美国之前，台湾可以提出临时收容阿富汗难民。
除阿富汗外，贺锦丽的讲话与拜登政府的声明一致，包括拜登政府对中国在南海的行动、对东南亚和自由开放的印度太平洋地区的重视以及扩大在亚洲的贸易。在东南亚开展业务的美国公司会因为贺锦丽提到该地区的经济愿景而松了一口气，即使她没有提供细节。然而，贺锦丽在谈论到例如气候变化和新冠疫情大流行的反应等议题时，显然更感兴趣
贺锦丽强调了与其他国家合作的重要性，例如「四方会谈」，跟进川普政府为鼓舞四国所做的努力，并强调与多边组织的合作，例如东盟和亚太经合组织，不同于川普政府对多边组织的怀疑态度。贺锦丽宣布，美国希望在2023年成为APEC的东道国。
不管贺锦丽在演讲中怎么说，新加坡和总理李显龙已经是大赢家。美国副总统不仅访问新加坡并发表公开演讲，而且在贺锦丽访问的第一天，美国和新加坡就气候变化、新冠肺炎、网路安全和供应链签署了多项协议。在美国国防部长奥斯汀访问新加坡后不到一个月，副总统贺锦丽访问新加坡，奥斯丁当时发表公开演讲。 2018年新加坡举办了川普总统与朝鲜领导人金正恩的首次会晤，2015年新加坡举办了「马习会」。新加坡显然是美国重要的安全和贸易伙伴，新加坡政府的观点在美国受到关注，例如李显龙最近在阿斯彭安全论坛上说，对中国来说「台独绝对是醒目的红灯」。
台湾政府应密切关注贺锦丽的讲话。阿富汗和中东将继续成为美国外交政策和军事资源的焦点。贺锦丽呼吁在亚洲加强多边主义，但这可能会导致台湾被排除在许多活动之外，因为除APEC和亚洲开发银行外，中国阻止台湾参与大多数其他以亚洲为重点的多边组织和协议。即使美国在2023年主办APEC领导人峰会，蔡总统也可能被排除在外。
也许对台湾来说最重要的是，尽管贺锦丽批评了中国，但贺锦丽并没有呼吁东南亚国家与台湾进行更多接触。尽管蔡政府大力推动「新南向政策」，但东南亚国家似乎仍继续限制与台湾在贸易和文化事务上的接触。
Kamala Harris Singapore Speech – What Taiwan Should Pay Attention To
By Ross Darrell Feingold
Former Asia Chairman Republicans Abroad
On August 24th in Singapore United States Vice President Kamala Harris delivered a public speech on the Biden Administration’s policies in Southeast Asia the Indo Pacific and globally. Unfortunately for Vice President Harris the first portion of her speech was devoted to the ongoing events in Afghanistan which are now both a domestic political crisis for the Biden Administration and risks becoming a foreign policy crisis if countries suspect the security commitments of the United States.
Harris thanked United States’ partners including Singapore for recent assistance related to Afghanistan. This shows that even small countries such as Singapore can provide such assistance which is something Taiwan should consider doing. For example this author previously proposed that Taiwan can offer to temporarily host Afghan refugees prior to the refugees relocation to the United States.
Other than Afghanistan Vice President Harris’ speech was consistent with statements by other Biden Administration’s about China’s actions in the South China Sea the importance that the Biden Administration puts on Southeast Asia and a free and open Indo Pacific as well as expanding trade between Asia and the United States. United States’ companies that do business in Southeast Asia will be relieved that Harris referred to an economic vision for the region even if she did not provide details. However Vice President Harris was more animated when discussing issues of greater personal interest to her such as climate change and the response to the COVID 19 pandemic.
Vice President Harris emphasized the importance of working together with other countries such as the “Quad” group which follows up on the efforts of the Trump Administration to invigorate the Quad and she emphasized working with multilateral organizations such as Asean and APEC which differs from the Trump Administration’s skepticism of multilateral organizations. Vice President Harris announced that the United States wants to serve as the APEC host country in 2023.
Regardless of what Vice President Harris said in her speech Singapore and Prime Minister Lee Hsien-loong are already a big winner. Not only did the United States vice president visit Singapore and deliver a public speech but on the first day of Harris’ visit the United States and Singapore signed several agreements on climate change COVID-19 cybersecurity and supply chain resiliency. Vice President Harris’ visit to Singapore comes less than one month after United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Singapore during which he also delivered a public speech. In 2018 Singapore hosted the first meeting between President Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un and in 2015 Singapore hosted the Ma Ying-jeou – Xi Jinping summit. Singapore is clearly a crucial security and trade partner for the United States and the Singapore government’s views receive attention in the United States such as when Prime Minister Lee recently told the Aspen Security Forum that “Taiwan independence is an absolute bright red light” for China.
The Taiwan government should pay careful attention to Harris’ speech. Afghanistan and the middle east will continue to remain a focus for United States foreign policy and military resources. Harris called for more multilateralism in Asia but this will likely result in Taiwan’s exclusion from many activities given that other than APEC and the Asian Development Bank China prevents Taiwan’s participation in most other Asia focused multilateral organizations and agreements. Even if the United States hosts the APEC leaders summit in 2023 President Tsai might be excluded from attending.
Perhaps most importantly for Taiwan although Harris criticized China Harris did not call on Southeast Asian countries to engage more with Taiwan. It appears that countries in Southeast Asia will continue to limit their engagement with Taiwan to trade and cultural matters notwithstanding the Tsai Administration’s “Southbound Policy”.
※以上言论不代表旺中媒体集团立场※