紐時賞析／俄烏戰爭進入終局？烏接連失去東部城市 指揮官駁：是消耗戰

乌克兰国家卫队第15旅一个砲兵连官兵本周在顿巴斯地区准备开火。（纽约时报）

Ukraine's Donbas Strategy: Retreat and Maximize Russia's Losses

乌克兰在顿巴斯采拖字诀 让俄军伤亡最大化

Throughout the year, Ukraine has lost a series of cities, towns and villages in its eastern Donbas region to Russia, typically withdrawing its troops after hard-fought battles that sometimes lasted for months.

这一年来，乌克兰在东部顿巴斯地区失去一连串城市、城镇和村庄，通常在历经艰苦战斗后撤军，这些战斗有时持续数月。

Marinka was the first to fall, a sign in January that Russia had regained momentum on the battlefield. Then came Avdiivka, an industrial city where Ukrainian soldiers had hunkered down in a dense maze of trenches and bunkers. Finally, this past week, Ukraine retreated from Vuhledar, a mining town perched on high ground that was a linchpin of Ukrainian defenses in the southeast.

马林卡率先沦陷，这是俄军1月在战场上重获动力的迹象。接着是工业城市阿瓦迪夫卡，乌军曾坚守在当地密集如迷宫的壕沟和掩体中。最后，在过去一周，乌军撤离位于一处高地的矿业城镇胡历达尔，此地是乌克兰东南部防卫关键。

To outside observers, Ukraine’s slow but steady retreat from the Donbas region, the main theater of the war today, may seem to signal the beginning of the endgame, with Russia firmly gaining the upper hand on the battlefield, leveraging its overwhelming advantage in manpower and firepower.

对于外部观察家而言，乌克兰缓慢但持续撤离当前主战场顿巴斯地区，似乎显示终局的开始；俄军利用其兵力和火力的压倒性优势，在战场上稳定占上风。

But Ukrainian commanders and military experts dispute that, saying that a more crucial fight is unfolding in the region that goes beyond simple territorial gains and losses. It is now a war of attrition, they say, with each side trying to exhaust the other by inflicting maximum losses, hoping to break the enemy’s capacity and will to continue the war.

但乌克兰指挥官和军事专家对此不赞同，称该地区正展开更关键的战斗，超越单纯的领土得失。他们表示，这是场消耗战，双方试图透过造成最大损失拖垮对方，希望能破坏敌人继续作战的能力和意愿。

Ukraine, a country that is a fraction of the size of Russia and with about a third of the population, is at an inherent disadvantage. It has fewer men to send to the front and despite an influx of Western military aid remains largely outgunned on the battlefield. That has left Ukraine with little choice but to retreat from towns under attack after exacting the highest price it can on manpower and materiel.

乌克兰国土面积仅是俄罗斯面积的一小部分，人口则是俄罗斯的三分之一，处于先天劣势。乌克兰能派去战场的人数较少，而且尽管西方军事援助涌入，他们的火力多半仍落后。这使乌克兰几乎别无选择，只能在人力物力付出最大代价后，从受到攻击的城镇撤退。

With Russia so far proving capable of absorbing its losses by recruiting more soldiers and ramping up arms production, it remains unclear how much territory Ukraine will have to give up before the Russian army runs out of steam — if it ever does.

到目前为止，俄军已证明他们能透过招募更多官兵和增产武器吸收损失，尚不清楚乌克兰要放弃多少领土才能让俄军精疲力竭，如果俄军真有那么一天的话。

Ukraine ultimately hopes that Russia’s mounting losses will make the war unsustainable for the Kremlin before it becomes so for Ukraine.

乌克兰最终希望俄罗斯损失增加，会让克里姆林宫觉得战争无法再打下去，而且要在乌克兰无以为继之前。

But how realistic is this strategy? President Vladimir Putin of Russia has put his country’s economy on war footing and has shown no sign that he is prepared to quit the fight.

但这个策略有多务实？俄罗斯总统普亭已让国家经济处于战备状态，也没有任何迹象显示他准备结束战斗。

文／Constant Méheut　译／罗方妤