紐時賞析／全美遊民似逆勢減少

纽约时报收集的当地数据显示，芝加哥无家可归人数在拜登政府执政最后一年减少60%。图为2024年3月芝加哥一处游民的临时营地。纽约时报

Homelessness Appears to Decline, Reversing a Yearslong Trend

全美游民似逆势减少

Homelessness appears to have fallen in the last year of the Biden administration, according to local counts reported to the federal government but not yet released under President Donald Trump, an analysis of the local data shows.

根据地方政府回报给联邦政府、美国总统川普尚未公布的统计数据分析，美国在拜登政府最后1年，无家可归人口似乎下降。

A large sample of the counts, taken in January 2025 and compiled by The New York Times, suggests the homeless population shrank by tens of thousands of people nationwide from the record level set the previous year, though the number remained high by historical norms.

纽约时报2025年1月收集并汇整的大规模数据样本显示，尽管全美无家可归人口数案历史标准来看仍很高，但数量相较于前年的历史高点少了上万人。

The tally includes jurisdictions that typically contain about two-thirds of homeless people, making it a meaningful if inexact preview of the national count, which the government has normally published by now.

统计数据涵盖的司法管辖区通常包括3分之2的无家可归人口，因此尽管这份数据预览报告不完全精确，但仍有意义，而政府通常在此时已公布相关数据。

“A sample of this size shows there’s been a decline in homelessness across the country,” said Dennis P. Culhane, an expert on homelessness data at the University of Pennsylvania who reviewed the figures at the Times’ request. For nearly two decades, Culhane helped lead the research team that compiled the nationwide count.

宾州大学无家可归人口数据专家柯翰在纽时的请求下审阅这些数据。他说：「如此规模的样本显示，全美无家可归人口数有所下降。」20年来，柯翰协助领导汇集全美这类数据的团队。

A national drop in homelessness would be the first in eight years.

若全国层级的无家可归人口确实下降，将是近8年来首度出现。

While the count is usually announced in December, a spokesperson for the Department of Housing and Urban Development said that “there is no standard timeline” for its release and declined to say when it would be made public.

尽管相关统计通常在12月公布，美国住房与城市发展部发言人表示，发布时间「并没有固定时程」，并拒绝说明何时会对外公开。

Trump has cited record levels of homelessness in calling for tough new policies. Evidence that homelessness fell before Trump took office may complicate the rancorous debate.

川普曾以无家可归人口创新高为由，主张更强硬新政策；若证据显示他上任前相关问题已缓解，势必使这场激烈的政治论战更加复杂。

Although the measure covers the last year of the Biden administration, some conservatives say it vindicates Trump’s get-tough call for camping bans, which many jurisdictions had already adopted. Critics of Trump’s plans note homelessness fell fastest in cities hit by an earlier surge of asylum-seekers, suggesting the record spike was anomalous and temporary.

尽管这项数据统计涵盖拜登政府执政的最后1年，但有些保守派人士表示，这证明川普强硬的露宿禁令是正确的，许多地方政府已采取相关措施。川普政策的批评者指出，无家可归人口下降最快的城市，往往曾因庇护寻求者人数激增而出现短期暴冲，显示先前的高峰可能只是异常且暂时的现象。

Nearly 400 local groups, called continuums of care, conduct the “Point in Time” counts in January and submit the numbers to HUD. With figures from areas that usually hold about two-thirds of the unhoused population, the sample collected by the Times found homelessness falling 7%.

被称为「延续照护体系」的近400个当地团体在1月进行「特定时段」的人口清点，并将数据提交给美国住房与城市发展部。纽约时报收集的样本涵盖了通常容纳约3分之2无家可归人口的地区；依这些数据，无家可归人口下降了7%。

Culhane, noting the Times’ sample overweighted big cities with steep declines, projected a nationwide decline of 3% to 5%.

柯翰指出，纽约时报的样本对于降幅较大的大城市占比偏高，因此他推估，全国层级的下降幅度可能落在 3%至5%。

“That is still the first drop in many years and one of the most significant on record,” he said.

他说：「这仍是多年来无家人口首次下滑，也是有史以来最显著的降幅之一。」

文／Jason DeParle，译／罗方妤

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