紐時賞析／入冬之後...新冠變異株JN.1病例增 科學家：威脅不大

假期来了又去，美国人又一次迎接呼吸道疾病，包括新冠肺炎。但到目前为止，比起去年，今年冬天的新冠病例上升似乎没那么致命，也比2022年低得多。施打疫苗示意图，纽约时报。

COVID Has Resurged, but Scientists See a Diminished Threat

新冠再起 但科学家认为威胁不大

The holidays have come and gone, and once again Americans are riding a tide of respiratory ailments, including COVID-19. But so far, this winter’s COVID uptick seems less deadly than last year’s, and much less so than in 2022, when the omicron surge ground the nation to a halt.

假期来了又去，美国人又一次迎接呼吸道疾病，包括新冠肺炎。但到目前为止，比起去年，今年冬天的新冠病例上升似乎没那么致命，也比2022年低得多，当年Omicron变异株激增，让整个国家陷于停顿。

“We’re not seeing the signs that would make me think that we’re heading into another severe wave,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “So far, we’re in relatively good shape.”

约翰霍普金斯卫生安全中心的流行病学家凯特琳．瑞佛斯表示，「我们没有看到迹象，会让我觉得正走向另一波严重浪潮。到目前为止，我们正处在相对良好的状态」。

Still, there are few masks in sight, and just a fraction of the most vulnerable people have received the latest COVID shots, she noted. “It’s not too late,” Rivers added, to get the updated vaccine.

尽管如此，她指出，放眼望去很少人戴口罩，而且最脆弱的人群只有一小部分施打最新的新冠疫苗。瑞佛斯补充说，对于接种更新的疫苗，「现在还来得及」。

Federal officials are relying on limited data to measure this year’s spread. After the end of the public health emergency in May, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped tracking the number of COVID infections.

联邦官员正仰赖有限的数据，来衡量今年的传播状况。公共卫生紧急状态去年5月结束后，美国疾病防治中心（CDC）已停止追踪新冠感染人数。

But trends in wastewater data, positive tests, emergency department visits, hospitalization rates and deaths point to a rise in infections in all regions of the nation, according to the CDC. These patterns have prompted many hospitals to reinstate mask policies.

但根据CDC，废水检测数据、筛检阳性、急诊就诊、住院率与死亡数字趋势，指向全国所有区域出现感染率上升。这些模式，已促使许多医院恢复口罩政策。

As in previous years, the numbers have steadily been rising all winter, and are expected to increase further after holiday travel and get-togethers. Many of the infections are caused by a new variant, JN.1, which has rapidly spread in recent weeks.

跟前几年一样，整个冬天这些数字一直稳步上升，且预期将在假期旅行与欢聚之后进一步增加。许多感染是由一个新的变异株JN.1引起，这种变异株最近几周迅速传播。

Some scientists have pointed to rising levels of the virus in sewage samples as an indicator that infections are at least as high this year as they were at this time last year. But Rivers urged caution in interpreting wastewater data as a proxy for infections and said hospitalizations were a more reliable metric.

一些科学家指出，将污水样本里的病毒上升水平当作指标，今年感染率至少跟去年此时一样高。但瑞佛斯敦促，解读废水数据做为感染指标时应保持谨慎，并指住院率是一个更可靠的指标。

In the week that ended on Dec. 23, hospitalizations rose by nearly 17% from the previous week. There were about 29,000 new hospital admissions, compared with 39,000 the same week last year and 61,000 in 2021. And weekly hospitalizations are increasing more slowly than in previous years, Rivers said.

在12月23日结束的该周，住院率较前一周上升近17%，约有29000名新入院患者。相较之下，去年同一周为39000名，2021年则为61000名。瑞佛斯说，每周住院率增长速度比前几年更慢。

COVID is still claiming at least 1,200 lives per week. But that number is about one-third the toll this time last year and one-eighth that in 2021.

新冠病毒每周仍夺走至少1200条人命。但这个数字约为去年此时死亡人数的三分之一、2021年的八分之一。

文／Apoorva Mandavilli 译／周辰阳